Fred Wilson, one of our favorite bloggers just wrote a very insightful post which explains our Data beats Algorithms thesis much better than we could explain it ourselves. We would strongly suggest that you go & read the whole post but here are the key highlights:
"A week or so ago, a top Internet analyst from Wall Street was in our office. He mentioned that the AppData numbers on Zynga foretold a difficult second quarter and the Yipit report on Groupon predicted trouble in that name as well. Both turned out to be fairly accurate and investable. "
And then he references an excellent analysis by Micah Sifry using Wikipedia Edits as Signals to predict Vice Presidential Picks, which we have re-blogged parts of below:
"Sarah Palin's Wikipedia page was updated at least 68 times the day before John McCain announced her selection, with another 54 changes made in the five previous days previous. Tim Pawlenty, another leading contender for McCain's favor, had 54 edits on August 28th, with just 12 in the five previous days. By contrast, the other likely picks — Romney, Kay Bailey Hutchison — saw far fewer changes. The same burst of last-minute editing appeared on Joe Biden's Wikipedia page, Terry Gudaitis of Cyveillance, told the Washington Post.
None of Wikipedia entries for the current candidates being bandied about by Romney-watchers — Rob Portman, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie, Kelly Ayotte or Pawlenty — are currently showing anything like the spike in edits that Cyveillance spotted on Palin and Biden's pages back in 2008. But most of those came in the 24 hours prior to the official announcement. That said, if Wikipedia changes offer any hint of what's coming, then today might be a good day to bet on Ryan.